China’s crude steel production in January and February 2025 experienced a decrease of 1.5% compared to the same period last year, despite improved profit margins and increased export activity. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, the country’s steel output reached 166.3 million metric tons during these two months.
This decline in production was unexpected by analysts, many of whom had anticipated a slight year-on-year rise based on the expectation of higher export figures. In fact, steel exports surged by 6.7% in the first two months, totaling 16.97 million tons.
The increase was partly attributed to steelmakers rushing to dispatch shipments in order to mitigate the risk of a potential global trade war following U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. When averaged out, China’s daily crude steel output from January and February was approximately 2.82 million tons, slightly higher than the daily average of 2.8 million tons for the same period in 2024, and also above the 2.45 million tons per day recorded in December.
The Chinese government combines its import data for January and February each year to account for fluctuations related to the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which is the country’s largest celebration. Looking ahead, analysts project that China’s steel output might increase in March as mills are expected to boost production in response to strong profit margins.
A recent survey by consultancy Mysteel indicated that nearly half of the steelmakers were operating profitably at the end of February, up from only about 20% in the same timeframe the previous year. However, concerns regarding a global trade war remain, casting uncertainty on future demand and steel prices.