China’s trade data for early 2025 indicates a weaker-than-expected economic outlook. Exports grew by only 2.3% year-on-year in January and February, totaling USD 539.9 billion. This growth falls short of market predictions, which anticipated a 5.9% increase, although it slightly surpassed more cautious forecasts. The data from the Customs Administration provides an initial glimpse into China’s trade performance, revealing trends that are less affected by the Lunar New Year than previously anticipated.
Among the notable performers, semiconductor exports remained strong, with an 11.9% year-on-year growth, and automatic data processing equipment saw a solid 10.5% increase. However, some previously high-growth sectors, like ships, experienced a slowdown from 57.3% YoY growth last year to just 2.2% in the early months of 2025. Meanwhile, categories like furniture, toys, shoes, and apparel showed significant declines, indicating waning demand. Export destination data highlights variations in growth.
Exports to the United States rose by 2.3% YoY, but the growth rate appears sluggish compared to the overall export performance. In contrast, exports to the European Union, Japan, Korea, and Russia all contracted. ASEAN remains a strong market for China, with a 5.7% YoY growth in exports. Imports have taken a more substantial hit, dropping 8.4% YoY in the first two months of 2025, reaching a total of USD 369.4 billion.
Strong imports of tech-related goods contrasted sharply with the overall decline. Commodities imports have also weakened, particularly for crude oil, natural gas, and steel. Notably, soybean imports fell by 14.8% YoY before the effects of retaliatory tariffs are fully realized. Despite the disappointing import figures, China’s trade surplus rose to USD 170.5 billion, significantly higher than the previous year and outpacing market forecasts.
This situation reflects the challenges of predicting the impact of tariffs amid ongoing trade negotiations. Consequently, policymakers face greater pressure to stimulate domestic demand to meet the annual growth target of 5%.