Aluminium exports from the United Arab Emirates to the United States surged in the early days of March 2025, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. This spike occurred as buyers rushed to secure shipments from their second-largest supplier prior to the impending tariffs set to take effect.
In the first 11 days of March, the UAE shipped 68,560.29 metric tons of aluminium to the U.S., a stark increase compared to only 16,124.88 metric tons recorded in all of March 2024. These recent figures represent a near two-year high for monthly exports.
President Donald Trump implemented a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imported into the U.S. as part of a strategy to bolster domestic production. In 2024, Canada dominated the supply chain, accounting for approximately 70% of primary and alloyed aluminium used in the U.S., while the UAE contributed about 8% of total consumption.
This shift in the market has prompted concerns, particularly since Canada responded with its own retaliatory tariffs on various products, including metals. Yulia Buchneva, director at Fitch Ratings, noted that U.S. importers may increasingly seek alternative suppliers due to trade tensions with Canada and potential escalations in tariffs.
According to CRU estimates, UAE producers generally have lower business costs compared to their Canadian counterparts, making Emirates Global Aluminium one of the most cost-effective producers worldwide. This positions the UAE favorably to maintain profitable exports to the U.S. despite the tariffs.
EGA, a major global aluminium producer, anticipates continued volatility in aluminium prices through 2025, attributing this to ongoing global trade tensions. Additionally, they expect alumina markets to stabilize as new production capacity comes online.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumers rely on Canadian aluminium producers like Alcoa and Rio Tinto but are likely to explore alternative sources as market dynamics shift.