Feed corn buyers in the European Union are taking proactive steps to secure supplies for June and July as they brace for a potential shortage. This anticipated shortage stems from dwindling stock levels from major producers, particularly Ukraine. Market analysts indicate that shipments from Ukraine are expected to slow as existing reserves are largely depleted, while fresh supplies from South America won’t be ready yet.
According to an importer from Spain, the situation is expected to be particularly challenging: “June and July will be very technical, as Ukraine won’t have a lot of stocks, and shipments from Brazil won’t arrive until mid-August.” Another importer from Barcelona shared that feed mills are focusing on fulfilling their requirements for these months. Fortunately, Spain’s domestic wheat and barley crops will serve as substitutes, helping to meet nutritional needs during this critical period.
The outlook for Spain’s domestic barley crop is positive this year, which is expected to help mitigate some supply pressures. This is a significant improvement from last year when Spain was compelled to import barley due to a poor local harvest. Buyers in Spain are predicting that corn prices will rise from June to August, driven by market conditions.
A buyer from a feed mill in Valencia commented, “We might see corn priced at wheat plus Eur10 at some point during June-August,” emphasizing the need to manage inventories carefully. In Italy, feed corn buyers are also facing higher prices from June to September. With limited shipments from Ukraine anticipated during this timeframe, purchasers are looking to secure corn in advance to prevent shortages.
Concerns about quality and reduced production due to heat waves in the Black Sea region further exacerbate the supply challenges. Moreover, new import tariffs on US corn may complicate sourcing, although some US shipments are still arriving in Spain, which could temporarily alleviate supply pressures.