The shipping market in 2025 is expected to be significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding U.S. military interventions in the Middle East. Senior Analyst Mr. Nikos Tagoulis from Intermodal points out that recent military actions against Houthi rebels are intended to curb Iranian influence, safeguard trade routes, and protect commercial vessels within the Red Sea and Suez Canal. In the mid-term, if these interventions lead to enhanced security, it could encourage shipowners to resume navigation through the Red Sea. This region has seen disruptions due to the threats posed by Houthi attacks, forcing many vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.
Such detours not only extend voyage times but also increase emissions and operational costs. The potential stabilization of security in the Red Sea could forge significant changes in global shipping dynamics. First, there may be a decrease in ton-miles, as ships returning to the Red Sea would shorten voyage distances, particularly on major routes like Asia-Europe. Moreover, shorter voyages would increase fleet availability, effectively boosting the active fleet capacity and, in turn, the overall tonnage supply.
However, this shift could apply downward pressure on freight rates. The combination of reduced ton-miles and increased fleet availability may impact freight rates, especially in sectors like containerships, which are already facing high tonnage supply. While optimism around U.S. military actions may bolster confidence in Red Sea trade, stakeholders remain cautious, closely monitoring the evolving security landscape and associated risks. Mr. Tagoulis emphasized that geopolitical dynamics in 2025 will play a pivotal role in shaping shipping market trends and global trade flows.
Earlier expectations of a gradual return to trade through the Red Sea by late 2025 are now clouded with uncertainty, leaving the market in a skeptical state as it grapples with the changing situation.