According to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo levels at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain high through this spring. However, a potential decline in year-over-year volumes could occur this summer due to ongoing tariff uncertainties.
NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold notes that retailers are bringing in as much merchandise as possible ahead of anticipated tariff increases. The recent tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, particularly those on Chinese goods which have increased from 10% to 20%, are a significant concern for the retail sector.
Although tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico won’t directly affect port volumes since those goods typically travel by truck or rail, the rising costs may still impact consumers. Gold emphasizes that tariffs act as a tax on imports, ultimately resulting in higher prices for American families.
Additionally, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett warns of a possible new fee for Chinese-built ships docking at U.S. ports, which could add costs that would affect cargo owners and consumers. As a result, shipping carriers may opt to use larger vessels and consolidate stops at major ports, which could stress the supply chain and negatively impact smaller ports.
In January, U.S. ports reported handling 2.22 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), representing a 4.4% increase from December and a 13.4% increase year over year. February’s import volume is projected to be 2.07 million TEUs, while March is forecasted to see 2.14 million TEUs.
However, declines are expected in June and July, marking the first drop since September 2023. The first half of this year is anticipated to total 12.78 million TEUs, a 5.7% increase from the previous year, contributing to an overall annual volume of 25.5 million TEUs.
This figure reflects a 14.7% rise compared to 2023, nearing the record levels seen in 2021 during the pandemic. The Global Port Tracker serves as a crucial resource for understanding the import landscape and is available to NRF retail members.