Goldman Sachs has predicted a significant increase in U.S. net copper imports, estimating a rise of 50% to 100% in the upcoming months. This surge is expected to be driven by higher U.S. prices as the country prepares for potential tariffs under the Trump administration. As of now, the price of copper for May 2025 in the U.S. is approximately $756 per metric ton above the global benchmark, which is set by the London Metal Exchange (LME).
This price hike follows the U.S. government’s initiation of an investigation into imposing tariffs on copper imports aimed at revitalizing domestic production. While no tariffs have been officially proposed yet, Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25% import duty on copper by the end of this year. This move is likely to lead to an increase in U.S. copper imports and a projected rise in U.S. copper inventories by 200,000 to 300,000 tons by the close of the third quarter.
The firm predicts that these higher domestic prices could push U.S. copper stocks from the current level of 95,000 tons up to a range of 300,000 to 400,000 tons by that time. In fact, this increase could account for approximately 45-60% of global reported inventories, which would result in significantly reduced copper inventories elsewhere. Additionally, Goldman Sachs forecasts a global copper market deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, driven by strong demand for electrification, stimulus initiatives in China, and a slowdown in the growth of mine supply.
The bank emphasizes that inventory fluctuations will notably influence timespreads in the market, predicting the LME price will average $10,200 per ton in the third quarter of 2024. Furthermore, it anticipates a maximum backwardation of $350 per ton in the LME from September to December, influenced by closing the U.S. import arbitrage.