The ongoing trade wars have significant implications for shipping, particularly as the Chinese shipbuilding industry continues to command a considerable share of the global market. Currently, Chinese shipyards are responsible for approximately 70% of the order book for bulk carriers and tankers over 10,000 DWT, 75% of the container order book over 5,000 DWT, and 37% of the gas carrier order book over 3,000 DWT. Projections indicate that by 2026, these shipyards are expected to deliver 65% of new vessels in these categories, underscoring their market dominance due in large part to competitive pricing and efficient production processes.
Despite proposals from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office to impose port fees on Chinese vessels, many shipowners have already acquired Chinese-built ships or are in the process of building them. Currently, Chinese-built vessels constitute a substantial portion of the active fleet: 43% of bulk carriers and 23% of tankers over 10,000 DWT. For newer vessels aged 0-10 years, these percentages are even higher, suggesting that any regulatory changes may not significantly impact this dominance.
The prospect of U.S. port fees could disrupt the global shipping landscape, especially for tankers and container vessels. Higher freight rates may contribute to inflation and increased logistical costs for U.S. businesses, while some shipowners might opt to avoid U.S. ports altogether to mitigate these added expenses. This shift could create an imbalance in supply and demand, straining global shipping capacity and raising costs for American trade.
Ultimately, the implications of these disruptions could be long-lasting. Given the integral role of the Chinese shipbuilding industry in global logistics, any hindrance to the flow of its vessels could lead to inefficiencies in international trade, adversely affecting U.S. businesses that rely on cost-effective shipping solutions.