Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to average $73 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a decrease of $7 per barrel from the previous year, as per Wood Mackenzie’s recent monthly oil market outlook. This forecast has been slightly revised downward by $0.40 per barrel since the early February report.
Two main factors are influencing this outlook: OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. tariff policies. Ann-Louise Hittle, the Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, highlights the intricate dynamics of supply and demand at play.
While global oil demand is projected to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is expected to increase even more, by 1.4 million barrels per day, which could exceed demand growth. Several key points emerge from the predictions.
OPEC+ plans to gradually increase production in small monthly increments from April 2025 through September 2026. If these plans are delayed, it could help support oil prices and counterbalance the effects of potential new U.S. tariffs.
Furthermore, global economic growth for 2025 is estimated at 2.8%, though this could decrease by about 0.5 percentage points due to possible trade war impacts. A slowdown in GDP growth may also lead to a reduction of about 0.4 million barrels per day in oil demand growth for that year, potentially lowering Brent crude’s average by $3 to $5 per barrel.
Wood Mackenzie stresses that these projections remain flexible, heavily reliant on global economic conditions, trade policies, and OPEC+ decisions. According to Hittle, slower GDP growth would leave the demand increase in 2025 at about 0.4 million barrels per day lower than currently projected, indicating a more significant supply increase from non-OPEC sources, largely independent of oil prices.
This situation could limit OPEC+’s ability to effectively manage output levels.