In 2024, global trade achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching $33 trillion, representing a 3.7% increase or $1.2 trillion compared to the previous year. This growth, detailed in the latest Global Trade Update by UNCTAD, was primarily driven by services, which surged by 9% and accounted for nearly 60% of the total growth, adding about $700 billion.
The trade in goods also contributed to the expansion, rising by 2% and adding $500 billion. However, while most regions experienced positive growth, Europe and Central Asia lagged behind.
Industry performance varied widely, with agri-food, communication technology, and transport sectors seeing gains, while energy, apparel, and extractive industries experienced slowdowns due to subdued demand and changing policies. Despite the overall increase, momentum began to wane in the latter half of the year.
By the fourth quarter of 2024, trade in goods grew by less than 0.5%, while services saw a modest increase of just 1%. Trade inflation approached zero as prices for traded goods stabilized, suggesting that the effects of high post-pandemic inflation had largely subsided.
Developing economies significantly outperformed developed nations in 2024, with imports and exports rising by 4% annually and 2% in the fourth quarter. This growth was largely fueled by East and South Asia, while South-South trade increased by 5% for the year.
Conversely, developed economies struggled, with trade remaining flat, and a 2% decline in the last quarter. Global trade imbalances returned to the levels seen in 2022, marked by a widening US trade deficit with China and increased deficits with the EU.
Notably, China’s strong exports propelled its trade surplus to new heights, and the EU managed to achieve a trade surplus, aided by elevated energy prices. As 2025 begins, trade remains stable but is overshadowed by growing geoeconomic tensions, potential protectionist measures, and trade disputes, raising concerns about future disruptions and the risk of global fragmentation.