The Trump administration is contemplating a strategy to halt and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea as part of an international initiative aimed at curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. This plan aligns with Trump’s commitment to enforce a “maximum pressure” campaign intended to isolate Iran economically and reduce its oil exports to zero to prevent the country from developing nuclear capabilities. In the early weeks of his second term, Trump imposed two waves of fresh sanctions targeting companies and an aging oil tanker fleet that operates without Western insurance while transporting oil from sanctioned countries.
These measures echo the limited actions taken during President Biden’s administration, which inadvertently enabled Iran to increase its oil exports through intricate smuggling networks. Administration officials are exploring ways for allied nations to intercept and inspect vessels in critical maritime chokepoints, including the Malacca Strait, delaying crude deliveries and potentially damaging the reputations of those involved in facilitating Iranian oil trade. Experts indicate that such tactics could create uncertainty within the illegal trade network without necessitating drastic measures like sinking ships.
Under the framework of the Proliferation Security Initiative—launched in 2003 and supported by over 100 countries—the U.S. could potentially persuade foreign governments to target Iran’s oil shipments. The National Security Council is currently reviewing the feasibility of these inspections, although it remains unclear if the U.S. has initiated discussions with any of the initiative’s signatories. However, past attempts to seize Iranian oil have resulted in retaliatory actions from Tehran, such as the seizure of foreign ships, which have complicated U.S. strategies.
Energy analysts suggest that while aggressive U.S. measures might temporarily reduce Iranian oil exports significantly, the long-term effectiveness of sanctions is questionable as Iran adapts to the restrictions. The ongoing dynamics of oil pricing and potential cooperation from Iraq’s Kurdistan region could also influence the effectiveness of such U.S. sanctions moving forward.