Crude throughput at China’s refineries is projected to decrease in both March and April, coinciding with a peak maintenance season starting in the latter half of March. Data from Platts indicates that this reduction follows strong refinery activity in January and February 2025. Notably, approximately 868,000 barrels per day (b/d) of refining capacity has been offline since mid-March, with an additional 790,000 b/d scheduled for maintenance in April. Sinopec, the world’s largest refiner by capacity, has reportedly taken four of its refineries offline since late March, significantly contributing to the decrease in throughput.
This includes facilities such as Jiujiang, Qilu, Gaoqiao, and Beihai, along with CNOOC’s Huizhou Petrochemical, totaling a combined capacity of 1.278 million b/d. Further impacting production, PetroChina’s Jinxi Petrochemical and several Sinopec refineries will also undergo maintenance starting in early April. Additionally, Hengli Petrochemical plans to reduce its crude throughput as it shuts down its ethylene plant and related units for maintenance. Market analysts predict a 100,000 b/d month-on-month decline in crude throughput for March, with an anticipated further 200,000 b/d drop in April.
This operational slowdown follows a peak throughput of 14.81 million b/d in the first two months of 2025, which was a 3.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. On the demand side, new export quotas for oil products issued by the Ministry of Commerce are not expected to bolster throughput significantly. There is limited incentive for refiners to maintain high production levels given the weak export margins, particularly for gasoline and gasoil. Furthermore, increasing ownership of new energy vehicles has started to dampen gasoline demand.
Amidst these changes, Sinopec plans to increase its crude throughput by 1.1% year-over-year to 255 million mt (5.13 million b/d) in 2025. Conversely, PetroChina aims for a 3.2% decrease in throughput compared to the previous year. While private refiners are experiencing varied outcomes, overall throughput is reflective of a transitional phase for China’s refining sector, marked by maintenance and shifting market conditions.