Citi Research has revised its price forecasts for base metals in 2025, primarily due to challenges posed by tariffs instituted by the Trump administration. The recent announcement of a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports, along with increased levies on various trading partners, has created uncertainty in global markets and raised concerns over potential economic stagnation and inflation. Analysts at Citi have identified copper, zinc, and aluminum as particularly vulnerable to these downward pressures, given the current market dynamics. As a result of these factors, Citi has adjusted its 2025 copper price prediction from $9,100 per ton to $8,860 per ton.
As of a recent report, the benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was down by 3.3%, priced at $9,378 per metric ton, with a low earlier in the day of $9,353, marking the lowest point since early March. Although metals generally remained exempt from mutual tariffs, Citi expects that Section 232 tariffs on copper will likely take effect in the upcoming second quarter. Additional adjustments in price forecasts have been made across the board for various metals. Aluminum prices have been downgraded from $2,615 per ton to $2,480 per ton, nickel from $16,000 to $15,500, zinc from $2,750 to $2,630, lead from $1,975 to $1,950, and tin from $33,750 to $33,700.
Overall, the outlook for base metals appears to be overshadowed by the potential impact of tariffs and the resulting market volatility.