According to maritime consultancy Drewry, global container shipping volumes are projected to decline by 1% due to U.S. trade policies implemented during the Trump administration. This anticipated decrease marks the third reduction in global container shipping demand since Drewry began tracking this data in 1979. Notably, historical declines include an 8.4% drop during the global financial crisis of 2009, and a 0.9% fall in 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The trade policies in question involve blanket tariffs of 10% on goods from various countries and exceptionally high tariffs of 145% on products imported from China.
In response, China and other nations have retaliated with tariffs on American goods. Drewry noted that if two-thirds of the current tariffs remain intact, U.S. imports from China could decrease significantly, by as much as 40%. Given China’s dominance in U.S. imports across various sectors, including consumer goods and industrial products, this decline could have substantial repercussions. While some production may shift from China to other countries with lower tariffs, potentially softening the blow on shipping demand, Drewry suggested that U.S. imports from alternative markets might rise by around 15%.
However, economists express concerns that Trump’s trade strategies could heighten the risk of a recession in the U.S., which is the largest economy globally. This economic slowdown may have a ripple effect worldwide, an assessment supported by the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, reports indicate that German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd has seen a cancellation of 30% of shipments to the U.S. from China, as businesses become wary of the trade conflict. The National Retail Federation has predicted that U.S. containerized import cargo volume could decline by at least 20% year-over-year in the latter half of 2025, as companies reassess their sourcing from China.
Executives at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest U.S. port, also warned of potential decreases in import volumes starting around May.