Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil price forecasts, lowering its average price prediction for Brent crude in 2023 by 5.5% to $69 per barrel. The firm also revised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) by 4.3%, bringing it to $66 per barrel. The adjustments are attributed to concerns over increased OPEC+ supply and the potential economic repercussions of ongoing global trade tensions, which could lead to a recession. Additionally, Goldman has decreased its long-term forecasts, cutting the 2026 average price for Brent by 9% to $62 and for WTI by 6.3% to $59.
The analysts indicated that there is potential for further downward revisions, emphasizing that the risks surrounding the updated forecast are predominantly negative, especially for 2026. As of early Friday morning, Brent crude was trading at $69.59 per barrel, while WTI was at $66.39. The decline in crude prices represents the most significant percentage drop since 2022, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs and a surprising decision by eight OPEC+ members to expedite their production cuts, thereby increasing output in May. Goldman highlighted that OPEC’s ability to implement swift output increases diminishes the likelihood of short-term price support due to reduced supply.
The brokerage has also lowered its expectations for oil demand growth, forecasting an increase of only 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the current year, down from a previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. For 2026, the projected increase in demand is now set at 700,000 bpd.