Goldman Sachs has forecasted that copper prices will decline to an average of $8,300 per metric ton by the third quarter of 2025. This prediction is influenced by anticipated weakening in industrial production coupled with increased uncertainty surrounding investments. The current geopolitical climate, particularly U.S. President Donald Trump’s implementation of “reciprocal” tariffs on various countries, including a staggering 104% on Chinese goods, is expected to exacerbate the situation. These tariffs may lead to diminished industrial demand, which in turn could drive copper prices down.
As a result of these developments, Goldman has adjusted its global refined copper demand growth forecast. The new estimates suggest a growth rate of only 1.3% year-over-year in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, significantly lower than their previous projections of 3.2% and 1.8%, respectively. The bank attributes this revision to slower demand growth outside of China, following recent GDP growth forecast adjustments after the announcement of U.S. tariffs. In light of these changes, Goldman now anticipates a global copper market surplus of 100,000 tons in 2025, a departure from their earlier expectation of a deficit of 180,000 tons.
Although the bank believes that the anticipated copper market deficit is merely delayed rather than permanently altered, it still predicts a shift to a deficit of 120,000 tons in 2026. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), the benchmark three-month copper price has already shown signs of adjustment, dropping 0.9% to $8,574.50 per metric ton as recorded at 0607 GMT.