Goldman Sachs has provided forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices, projecting that by December 2025, Brent will be priced at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58. Looking ahead to December 2026, these prices are expected to decline further, reaching $55 for Brent and $51 for WTI.
These forecasts are based on two key assumptions. Firstly, they assume that the U.S. economy manages to avoid a recession, thanks in part to significant tariff reductions set to take effect on April 9.
Secondly, they predict a moderate increase in supply from eight OPEC+ countries, with anticipated increments of 130,000 to 140,000 barrels each in June and July. However, the bank also highlighted that in the event of a typical U.S. recession, prices may drop significantly; they estimate Brent could fall to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs noted that if there were a drastic shift in tariff policies, oil prices might surpass their current forecasts. On Monday, the firm revised its annual average price predictions for 2026 downward, citing heightened recession risks and the possibility of unexpected increases in OPEC+ supply.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently intensified tariff threats against China, while the European Union has proposed retaliatory duties, raising concerns about a prolonged trade war that could push the global economy toward recession. In a scenario outlining a global GDP slowdown, while maintaining their baseline for OPEC, Brent prices could drop to $54 by December 2025 and further to $45 by December 2026.
In an extreme scenario involving both a global slowdown and a full reversal of OPEC+ supply cuts, Brent prices could plummet to just under $40 per barrel by late 2026. As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $64.72 per barrel, with WTI at $61.26.