West Africa’s potential for Capesize vessels is largely linked to the increasing demand for bauxite, a key raw material for aluminium production. China’s commitment to developing more sustainable infrastructure has resulted in a rising need for bauxite imports, particularly from West African ports, which are part of the Africa Atlantic Coast (AAC). Notably, Guinea has seen a notable increase in Capesize traffic, driven by the mineral’s pivotal role in eco-friendly technologies and premium consumer goods. The trade dynamics of bauxite shipments from West Africa to China have evolved significantly.
Historically, the AAC has been a crucial source for China’s bauxite needs. As of late 2023, AAC ports supplied 54% of China’s seaborne bauxite imports, a rise from 43% the previous year. Guinea remains the leading exporter within the AAC, accounting for 91% of bauxite shipments. Meanwhile, Ghana has emerged as the second-largest exporter, attributed to significant investments in its bauxite sector.
Capesize vessels dominate the transport of this cargo, with 83% of exported bauxite carried by this class of ships. Although China is the third-largest bauxite producer, it depends on imports for approximately 70% of its requirements. Investments in aluminium smelting and refining have made China the world’s largest consumer of bauxite. Despite recent challenges in the construction sector impacting aluminium consumption, demand remains strong in other areas, particularly for electrification.
Looking ahead, the demand for Capesize vessels from the AAC to China is expected to grow. China’s pursuit of energy-efficient infrastructure will necessitate increased aluminium production and bauxite imports. Concurrently, West African nations are enhancing their bauxite mining infrastructure, ensuring a steady supply of this resource. The anticipated opening of Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mines will further boost shipping demands, as they are expected to account for a significant portion of China’s seaborne ore imports.
Overall, the outlook for Capesize vessel demand between West Africa and China remains highly positive.