Indian iron ore exports are currently under pressure, with flows from the country declining from previous highs. As the fifth-largest iron ore exporter worldwide, India primarily ships its ore to China, with three major ports—Paradip, Dhamra, and Gopalpur—making up over two-thirds of all iron ore exports. Most of this iron ore is transported by supramax vessels, which account for more than 75% of the sea-bound shipments.
Despite an increase in iron mine output reported by India’s Ministry of Mines, the total figures for seaborne iron ore exports in 2025 show a significant downturn compared to past years. This situation is primarily driven by two factors affecting the supply chain from both ends. Firstly, India’s domestic steel production capacity is expanding and necessitating a greater amount of iron ore.
Already the second-largest steel producer globally, India aims to boost its capacity to 300 million tonnes by 2030, necessitating a steady annual growth rate of about 5%. The Indian government has backed this initiative through the National Steel Policy 2017, which focuses on transforming India into a technologically sophisticated steel manufacturing hub. Furthermore, considerable investments in the steel sector, fueled by rapid urbanization and infrastructure development, are expected to sustain rising demand for iron ore.
The second, and perhaps more significant, reason for the decline in iron ore exports is falling demand from China. The National Development and Reform Commission of China is planning to restructure its steel industry, reducing production significantly, which could lead to a decrease in iron ore demand by around 75 million tonnes. As India increases its steel production while Chinese demand diminishes, the implications for Indian ports are concerning.
Dhamra and Paradip, where iron ore accounts for 87% and 83% of all cargo, respectively, could see a decline in demand, putting additional strain on supramax vessel operations. In summary, India is likely to face a combination of rising domestic iron ore needs and decreased exports, resulting in increased competition among supramax vessels and potential declines in shipping rates. This shift may lead to higher steel imports if domestic production cannot keep pace with demand, further complicating the landscape for iron ore exports.