Oil loadings from Russia’s western ports are expected to decline by approximately 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of April, compared to the previous month. This estimate puts the average loadings at around 1.86 million bpd for the period between April 1 and April 15. Data from trade sources and calculations by Reuters confirm this downward trend.
The main grades of oil being exported, which include Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light, are primarily shipped from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk. Analysis indicates that these oil exports will decrease by about 6% daily compared to levels recorded from March 1 to March 15. A contributing factor to this reduced output is the ongoing repairs being conducted at certain refineries following drone attacks that occurred in February and March.
As a result, a larger volume of crude oil is being allocated for domestic processing in anticipation of the peak seasonal demand for motor fuels. However, market traders suggest that oil loadings could rebound in the latter part of April, potentially reaching or even surpassing the levels seen in March. This recovery in loadings may signal an adjustment to the temporary disruptions caused by earlier events.
In terms of refining capacity, projections for April indicate a reduction to approximately 2.137 million metric tons, down by around 320,000 bpd from 3.58 million tons in March. This data, derived from LSEG and other sources, emphasizes the looming complexities in Russia’s oil production landscape during this period.