In March 2025, the number of Aframax voyages to the Far East surged to 44, marking a striking 41.94% increase compared to February of the same year. This spike indicates a strategic end-of-quarter push in exports, likely influenced by changing market dynamics and geopolitical factors. However, when comparing year-on-year figures, the quantity reflects an 8.33% decline from March 2024, when 48 voyages were recorded.
Overall, Q1 2025 exhibited slightly reduced activity compared to Q1 2024, suggesting that while March showed a notable increase in shipments, it may be a short-term adjustment rather than a clear trend. The rise in Aframax voyages during this period can largely be attributed to geopolitical pressures, particularly from the United States, which has reiterated threats to impose significant tariffs on international buyers of Russian crude. In late March 2025, these threats likely prompted Russian exporters and Asian refiners to act swiftly by securing cargoes beforehand.
Although export volumes saw a slight year-on-year decline in March, the substantial month-on-month jump underscores the urgency among market participants to preemptively address potential disruptions in trade flows. Additionally, market volatility influenced this spike, coinciding with Brent crude prices falling below $60 per barrel for the first time since early 2021 due to OPEC+’s unexpected output increases. This situation prompted Russian exporters to expedite shipments in March, seeking to capitalize on stronger pricing before further market adjustments.
While March 2025 did not surpass the previous year’s figures in terms of overall voyages, the increase emphasizes the Aframax segment’s responsiveness to immediate policy and pricing changes. Vessels in this category continue to be vital for Russia’s export strategy in the Pacific, adapting to evolving sanctions and altering trade routes. Signal Ocean’s detailed voyage data offers crucial insights into these adjustments, showcasing how operators navigate the current geopolitical landscape and market circumstances.