The global tanker market faces uncertainty amid escalating trade tensions, particularly concerning oil prices and demand. According to Gibson Shipbrokers, the immediate repercussions for tanker markets remain unclear, especially with oil and refined products currently exempt from new tariffs. Recent data indicates that oil prices reacted swiftly to expectations of reduced demand alongside an announcement from OPEC+ about increasing production in May.
In the short term, price-sensitive buyers, particularly China, might seize the opportunity to procure cheaper oil. However, concerns about slow economic growth and its impact on oil demand persist for the medium to long term. Despite exemptions from the US tariffs, trading partners are poised to retaliate.
The US imported 3.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of seaborne crude and refined products in 2024, primarily from Latin America and the Middle East. Exports of nearly 4.2 mbd went largely to Europe and Asia, which could soon be impacted by retaliatory tariffs. Some European nations, however, lack alternative suppliers, a situation that may change as OPEC+ increases production.
In the Clean Petroleum Products (CPP) sector, the US imported 900 thousand barrels per day (kbd) from various sources and exported 1.9 mbd, with a significant portion heading to Latin America. Turning to China, a notable response includes the imposition of a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, extending to oil and refined products. In 2024, imports of US crude were limited, totaling just 240 kbd.
Overall, the tanker industry has largely avoided significant direct effects from tariffs thus far, but the potential for indirect consequences looms. Future targeting of US oil imports by other trade partners may hinge on the availability of alternative supply options, which remain uncertain.