Ukraine is poised to boost its soybean exports to the European Union amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, according to the Ukrainian farm producers union (UAC). In 2024, Ukraine achieved a record harvest of 6.2 million metric tons of soybeans, though the area dedicated to soybean planting may be reduced in the coming year due to fluctuating prices.
Recent developments in U.S. trade policy, including a 10% minimum tariff on most imports and increased duties on goods from various countries, particularly China, are likely to result in retaliatory measures. This could lead to higher prices and decreased demand for U.S. products.
The UAC has indicated that if the trade conflict worsens, European buyers may increasingly turn to Ukrainian soybeans. The union noted that Europe has already been ramping up its imports from Ukraine, a trend expected to grow in the near future.
Ukrainian agricultural analysts have also suggested that corn from Ukraine, a vital part of the country’s grain market, might see a boost from the U.S. tariffs. This corn could serve as a substitute for American corn if sanctions are implemented.
In terms of recent export activity, UAC reported that traders shipped out 93,000 tons of soybean in April, following exports of 369,000 tons in March, 391,000 tons in February, and 194,000 tons in January. Looking ahead, analysts from APK-Inform project that Ukraine’s soybean harvest in 2025 could range between 5.8 and 6.2 million metric tons, with the eventual yield dependent on rainfall in May and June.
The developments in trade dynamics may significantly impact these agricultural outcomes.