Brazil has seen a notable increase in grain shipments, with a reported 9% rise attributed to higher soybean harvest estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Initially, shipments experienced a slowdown in January due to delays in the harvest, but activity surged in February, contributing to increased congestion at shipping ports. Soybeans represent the majority of this traffic, accounting for 71% of Brazilian grain shipments, while maize makes up 27%. China plays a significant role in this export landscape, representing 25% of global and 53% of Brazilian grain imports.
Over the past decade, China’s growing demand for Brazilian grain has been influenced by economic factors, leading to a shift away from US suppliers amidst escalating tariffs. Since March 2025, US exports to China have seen a drastic reduction of 54% year-over-year, while Brazilian shipments to China have risen by 9%. The increase in Brazilian grain exports has positively impacted demand for ton-miles in the panamax shipping segment, which handled 82% of cargoes in 2024. Although Brazilian grain shipments constitute only 9% of panamax cargo volume, they contribute to 19% of the segment’s ton-mile demand due to longer sailing distances.
However, this growth has not been sufficient to counteract the 35% decline in the Baltic Panamax Index year-to-date in 2025, as reduced shipments of coal and grain across various segments intensify competition and pressure freight rates. Looking ahead, the USDA forecasts a 6% improvement in Brazil’s maize harvest, supporting future shipments. The larger second maize crop typically begins harvesting in June, and current weather conditions appear favorable. Despite positive signs for Brazilian grain exports, challenges may arise with China’s ambitious agricultural targets designed to decrease import dependency, which could impact global grain demand.