US ethane exports are anticipated to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026, particularly to China, following the removal of tariffs on American imports. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports are projected to rise to 540,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 640,000 b/d in 2026, up from 492,000 b/d in 2024.
This positive outlook is grounded in the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook report, which indicates that China, a key destination for US ethane, has lifted a substantial 125% tariff on these imports. The EIA projects US ethane production will grow from 2.8 million b/d in 2024 to an estimated 2.9 million b/d in 2025 and 3.1 million b/d in 2026.
This has been driven by rising global demand for petrochemicals, low production costs, and an expanded fleet capable of transporting ethane. Despite uncertainties around evolving tariff policies, the EIA remains optimistic about the increase in exports.
Sources familiar with the situation suggest that Beijing may choose not to make an official announcement regarding these changes. It’s believed that China’s subsidized petrochemical industry might be easing tariffs to ensure a reliable supply from the US, benefitting both nations.
Currently, the US is a dominant supplier, accounting for a significant share of global ethane shipments. Major US natural gas liquids (NGL) exporters are expressing confidence in continued export flows.
Energy Transfer’s leadership noted that Chinese tariffs have not hampered their export business, and the company recently finalized agreements for additional ethane shipments. Other major players, like Enterprise Products Partners, are also positioning themselves for future growth, emphasizing that the market dynamics remain stable despite the tariff fluctuations.
Upcoming negotiations between US and Chinese officials may provide more clarity on trade relationships and ethane exports, signaling a prospective easing of tariffs amid discussions for a comprehensive trade agreement.