Dry bulk carrier prices are on the rise, reflecting an improving market condition. A review of historical data indicates that the trends in average rates and asset prices over the first five months of each year are closely correlated. During the downturn in 2016, both spot rates and asset values reached all-time lows, with 15-year-old Supramaxes valued below $4 million.
However, a rebound occurred in 2017-2018, leading to a tripling of both spot rates and asset prices. This relationship continued throughout the 2021-2022 supercycle, driven by pandemic-related stimulus, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price surges. Despite a moderation of spot rates, which hovered just above $7,000 per day in early 2025, asset values have shown remarkable resilience.
This trend suggests a new baseline for prices, influenced by broader structural factors. Notably, the divergence in asset pricing at similar spot market levels across different years has created a significant disparity. For instance, a Japanese 15-year-old Supramax earning around $10,000 per day was valued at $8.5-$9.5 million during 2018-2019, but in 2025, such earnings support prices exceeding $15 million—a remarkable 60% increase.
Several factors contribute to the rising asset values, including increased newbuilding costs driven by inflation and steel prices, sustained supply discipline, and regulatory uncertainties that elevate the value of existing vessels. Ship owners and buyers are beginning to look beyond short-term earnings, focusing instead on replacement values and long-term market trends. This shift in perspective has led to a fundamental repricing of vintage dry bulk assets.
While market optimism prevails, risks remain; if sentiment turns or rates decline, asset prices may face downward adjustments. As it stands, the current landscape in dry bulk values reflects both the present realities and expectations of a tighter future market.