Dry bulk shipping is witnessing a shift in market dynamics, as policy has become just as influential as seasonal trends. The Cape index, which is primarily driven by iron ore and coal volumes, has shown considerable volatility during the recent years. Historical data from 2017, 2018, and 2024 revealed that the April-May averages were significantly lower than the yearly means, reflecting a seasonal slowdown in Chinese iron ore imports following robust Q1 restocking efforts.
However, in 2021 and 2022, the index remained much closer to its average during the spring due to factors like port congestion and China’s post-pandemic stimulus. While the Cape segment may find occasional support in spring, this period tends to provide a pause rather than a breakout. In the Pmax segment, which includes grain, coal, and minor bulk trades, less volatility was observed, yet a modest downturn occurred in April and May, particularly noticeable in 2023 due to subdued South American grain exports and uncertain trade policies.
The spring of 2025 did show signs of a partial rebound, although it still fell short of reaching yearly averages. Interestingly, the Supra and Handy segments experienced more consistent performance during spring, as evidenced by averages closely matching those of prior years. This resilience might be indicative of stable trade flows in coastal and intra-Asian routes, contrasting with the dramatic fluctuations seen in larger segments.
Data from 2017 to 2025 suggests that while April and May usually do not represent annual low points, they signify a pause in market momentum. Crucially, political decisions are increasingly impacting dry bulk market trends, as demonstrated by tariff policies that alter trade flows for critical commodities. Consequently, market participants must carefully monitor political developments alongside seasonal demand trends to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.