In April, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported an increase in the FAO Food Price Index, which is a key measure for tracking global food commodity prices. The index rose to an average of 128.3 points, marking a 1.0 percent increase from March and a 7.6 percent increase compared to April of the previous year. This rise was primarily driven by increased prices for major cereals, meat, and dairy products. The FAO Cereal Price Index climbed by 1.2 percent from the previous month.
Wheat prices saw a slight increase, supported by tighter exportable supplies from the Russian Federation. Additionally, the FAO All Rice Price Index also rose due to heightened demand for fragrant varieties. International maize prices surged, influenced by seasonal stock limitations in the United States. Price fluctuations were affected by currency changes and uncertainties stemming from tariff policy adjustments.
The FAO Meat Price Index experienced a significant jump of 3.2 percent in April, with all categories of meat seeing increased prices, particularly pig meat. Bovine meat prices strengthened notably in Australia and Brazil, supported by steady import demand and restricted export availability. In the dairy sector, the FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 2.4 percent, with butter prices reaching an all-time high due to decreased inventory levels in Europe. Conversely, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index declined by 2.3 percent but remained 20.7 percent above the previous year’s levels.
This decrease was primarily attributed to seasonal production rises in major Southeast Asian palm oil-producing countries. Meanwhile, the FAO Sugar Price Index dropped by 3.5 percent, attributed to concerns regarding the global economic outlook and its potential effects on demand from the food and beverage sectors. In related developments, the FAO also published a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, providing updated estimates for 2024 and insights on cropping conditions for 2025. The forecast indicates stable wheat production at about 795 million tonnes, driven by strong outputs in Asia and improved conditions in Europe and North Africa.
However, concerns arise from rainfall deficits in northern Europe and drought risks in the United States. For 2024, global cereal production estimates were slightly revised downwards to 2,848 million tonnes, although rice production is anticipated to reach a record high of 543.6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, projected world cereal utilization for 2024/25 is expected to increase to 2,870 million tonnes, driven by higher maize feed use in China and the Russian Federation. Lastly, the FAO has slightly reduced its forecast for global cereal trade in 2024/25 to 478.6 million tonnes, marking a 6.8 percent decrease from the previous year, the lowest level observed since 2019/20.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) has also released its monthly Market Monitor, analyzing the impact of geopolitical factors on fertilizer markets and global trade, highlighting the uncertainty that lies ahead.