Goldman Sachs has increased its copper price forecasts, attributing the adjustments to a decline in trade tensions and robust demand from China. The bank now anticipates copper prices to reach $9,330 per ton in the second quarter and $9,150 in the third quarter, up from previous estimates of $8,620 and $8,370, respectively. The firm also highlighted that high copper imports into the U.S. will likely reduce inventories outside the country through the remainder of the second quarter.
This situation is expected to tighten forward spreads on the London Metal Exchange, discouraging new speculative short positions. The resilience in China’s copper demand, particularly driven by strong exports, has contributed to this optimistic forecast. Despite this positive outlook for the short term, Goldman Sachs predicts a significant slowdown in global copper demand in the latter half of the year, particularly with the potential changes regarding U.S.
Section 232 tariffs. In February, former President Trump initiated an investigation into possible tariffs on copper imports to bolster domestic production. Should the decision be delayed until late 2025, it may disrupt copper trade flows and lead to a supply shortage outside the U.S., particularly affecting China.
Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs anticipates the copper market will enter a supply deficit by 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors coupled with restricted mining growth. This imbalance is expected to elevate prices from an anticipated low of $9,000 per ton in October 2025 to over $10,500 per ton by the end of 2026. Currently, benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange is trading at $9,438 per metric ton, recently peaking at $9,582, reflecting the market’s positive sentiment.