Middle East crude benchmarks Oman, Dubai, and Murban experienced a decline for the second consecutive session on Friday. Market expectations of an OPEC+ supply increase in July contributed to this downward trend. An anticipated rise in supply has also put pressure on oil prices, with Brent and WTI both falling for the fourth straight session, signaling the first weekly decline in three weeks for these benchmarks.
In terms of weekly performance, the benchmarks remained relatively unchanged overall. The premium of cash Dubai to swaps decreased by 13 cents to settle at $1.08 a barrel, reflecting the market’s bearish sentiment. In related news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) announced that the Kropotkinskaya pumping station, which had been damaged by a drone attack in February, has resumed operations.
Additionally, spot premiums for Murban crude have reached a six-month low, largely due to increasing supply as the United Arab Emirates boosts production in line with OPEC+’s decision to escalate output and compete more aggressively with U.S. shale oil. Moreover, Chevron’s U.S. license to operate in Venezuela is set to expire on May 27, as confirmed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio through his personal social media account. On another note, Kazakhstan is likely to surpass its original oil output target of 96.2 million tons for 2025, thanks to expansions at the Chevron-led Tengiz field.
Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov expressed this optimistic outlook despite OPEC+ pressures. Overall, the market is bracing for shifts in supply dynamics as these developments unfold.