Tanker Weekly Market Monitor reports a notable decline in Saudi oil flows to China during the second quarter of 2025. Following OPEC+’s recent announcements, crude oil prices have plummeted, with Brent experiencing its most significant monthly drop, nearly 9% in April.
This decline pushed prices below the crucial $80 per barrel mark. Analysts predict that Brent prices will remain under pressure throughout 2025, averaging between $75 and $78.
Institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan foresee continued price weakness into 2026, blamed on sluggish industrial growth in China and Europe, increased non-OPEC output—especially from U.S. shale—and potential oversupply if compliance from OPEC+ falters. In spite of the downturn in Q2, there are signs that Chinese crude oil imports might recover in the latter half of 2025.
Major refining projects, including those by Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical, are set to increase operations soon, which will ramp up crude throughput and necessitate higher import levels. Additionally, the Chinese government is poised to introduce new economic stimulus measures focused on energy-intensive manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, supporting domestic demand for refined products and subsequently crude oil.
If crude prices remain low, particularly under $75 per barrel, China may take the opportunity to replenish its strategic petroleum reserves. While diversifying its crude sources—raising purchases from Russia, the UAE, and potentially Iran—Beijing stays sensitive to pricing.
If Saudi Arabia can provide competitive prices and favorable terms, Chinese refiners might resume or even broaden their purchases from the Kingdom later in the year. In conclusion, the decline in Saudi oil flows to China in Q2 2025 stems from various factors, including seasonal demand changes and global supply dynamics.
Despite challenges and geopolitical uncertainties, there are indications that Chinese imports from Saudi Arabia may rebound later in the year, depending on refinery activities, economic stimulus effects, and competitive offerings from suppliers.