China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are projected to experience their first decline in three years, largely influenced by weak industrial demand and increased domestic and piped gas supplies. This trend is underscored by revised forecasts from five research firms, which highlight that the downturn will impact global LNG supply and potentially lower Asian spot prices, which have already fallen by 12% in 2023. Estimates suggest that LNG imports will decrease between 6% and 11% from the previous year’s 76.65 million metric tons. Initially, forecasts indicated a record high for imports, driven by anticipated economic stimulus measures from Beijing aimed at boosting industrial demand.
However, the imposition of U.S. tariffs has significantly hampered China’s export activities, as noted by analysts like Rystad’s Xiong Wei. The consumer price index in China has also shown year-on-year declines, indicating a lack of consumer confidence. Analysts from Rystad, Kpler, and ICIS attributed the drop in LNG consumption to both weak industrial demand and a milder winter, leading consumers to prefer the more affordable domestically produced gas or pipeline imports. Historically, a decline in LNG imports is unusual for China, a country that has seen steady growth in this sector.
The last contraction in imports occurred during the pandemic lockdowns in 2022. Current data shows that imports fell to 20 million metric tons from nearly 29 million during the same period last year. Even a rebound in the latter half of the year may not suffice to compensate for the current weakness, according to ICIS’s Yuanda Wang. Additionally, imports from key suppliers such as Australia, Malaysia, and Russia have also declined sharply.
Australia’s shipments to China decreased by 24% in the early months of 2025 compared to the previous year. This reduction primarily stems from long-term contractual volumes, while spot purchases remained stable.