According to Gibson Shipbrokers, recent forecasts indicate a significant shift in crude oil demand, particularly from China. The expectation for Chinese oil demand between 2024 and 2030 has been revised downwards, with only a projected increase of 100,000 barrels per day (kbd). This marks a notable departure from the previous year’s prediction, which anticipated substantial growth.
The overall reduction in demand expectations for China amounts to 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2030, attributed primarily to lower GDP growth and a faster transition towards a decarbonized vehicle fleet. The rise of electric vehicles is expected to displace over 5 mbd of global demand by 2030, with a significant portion stemming from reduced gasoline needs in China. Conversely, demand in the OECD is on the rise, with North America seeing an upward revision of 1 mbd and Europe by 400 kbd.
On the supply side, global oil production is forecasted to increase by 3.4 mbd between 2024 and 2030, particularly in the Americas. While U.S. production is expected to plateau, growth will remain consistent in Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina. This strong supply growth is anticipated to decrease the call on OPEC+ by 1.8 mbd by 2030, diminishing their market share, although OPEC+ might have differing plans moving forward.
In refining, global capacity is set to rise by 2.5 mbd over the same period, primarily driven by growth in China and India, alongside changes in the Middle East. As global demand for conventional refined fuels declines, refineries may pivot towards petrochemical feedstocks and biofuel production. While the outlook for crude tankers appears stable due to increasing demand from the East and supply from the West, challenges arise for product tankers as conventional refined fuel demand continues to ease.
This dynamic is expected to test clean tonne mile demand in the upcoming years.