Goldman Sachs has revised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, predicting an average of $9,890 per metric ton. This adjustment is attributed to concerns about a global supply shortfall, influenced by U.S. tariffs and increasing demand from China.
The disparity between copper prices in the United States (COMEX) and the United Kingdom (LME) has prompted the U.S. to import approximately 400,000 kilotonnes of copper this year. Despite a current global surplus, these elevated imports have raised worries about potential copper shortages outside the U.S.
Goldman anticipates that the Trump administration will implement a 25% tariff on copper imports after completing its investigation into foreign copper sources.
Earlier this year, President Donald Trump initiated an inquiry into potential tariffs aimed at bolstering domestic copper production, which is crucial for electric vehicles, semiconductors, military applications, and various consumer products. The bank noted that market prices currently reflect only a 60% likelihood of this tariff being enacted by May.
Goldman predicts that copper prices will peak at $10,050 in August due to the tariff threat impacting inventories outside the U.S., while maintaining an optimistic outlook on Chinese demand. However, prices are expected to drop to $9,700 by December.
The bank pointed out that the market is not adjusting for a high probability of the 25% tariff, leading to recommendations for a trading strategy that takes advantage of the price differences between U.S. and UK copper markets. Looking ahead, Goldman slightly adjusted its 2026 average copper price forecast to $10,000 per ton, down from an earlier projection of $10,170, with expectations of reaching $10,350 by December.
The bank remains positive about copper prices for 2027, forecasting an average of $10,750 amid a growing supply deficit fueled by heightened electrification demand and limited growth in mine supply.