The tanker market is currently grappling with the impact of war and geopolitical tensions. According to data from Gibson, approximately 12% of the global tanker fleet over 25,000 dwt is already under sanctions, with the Aframax and LR2 categories being particularly affected, as 24% of these sizes are currently sanctioned.
Recent reports indicate that up to 77 additional vessels may be targeted, although many may already be sanctioned by different jurisdictions. As the number of sanctioned vessels increases, there has been a noticeable rise in mainstream tankers engaging in Russian trade, mainly in the Aframax and Suezmax segments.
One of the more complex issues is the proposed import ban on refined products sourced from Russian crude. The refining process alters the chemical makeup of crude oil, complicating efforts to trace its origin.
Effective enforcement of this ban would necessitate the creation of a robust verification system or a broader restriction on refined product imports from major consumers of Russian crude. From a supply standpoint, Europe could potentially substitute the banned volumes with oil from the United States, the Middle East, and Asia.
However, significant Russian crude importers like India and Turkey only exported about 340,000 barrels per day of refined products to the EU in 2024, amounting to merely 10% of the region’s total demand. Given the current geopolitical climate, including heightened tensions in the Middle East, the transition could exacerbate gasoil and jet fuel shortages.
Another proposed strategy is to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 per barrel, which poses timing challenges amid rising hostilities between Israel and Iran. This could lead to further declines in Russian exports and increase compliance risks for tanker owners.
Without U.S. support and favorable market conditions, the effectiveness of this price cap reduction remains uncertain. In conclusion, while targeting the dark fleet seems probable, making substantial changes in the tanker market will require careful deliberation and international cooperation.