The health of the 2025 U.S. winter wheat crop took a dramatic turn for the better, shifting from one of the worst conditions in history last autumn to a notable improvement as the harvest season begins. Current ratings indicate that 54% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition, a six-year high for early June, surpassing market expectations and marking a significant recovery from 38% in late October, which was the second-lowest rating on record.
This improvement is crucial for U.S. exporters, who are poised to sustain and possibly enhance their strong sales into the next year. The current rating is the best seen since 64% in 2019, a year characterized by impressive yields.
Historical data shows that yields were approximately 13% and 7% above the long-term average in 2016 and 2019, respectively. In contrast, last year’s crop rated only 47% in good or excellent condition, with final yields aligning more closely with the trend.
Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain. As of the latest report, only 4% of the U.S. winter wheat harvest has been completed, lagging behind the anticipated 8%.
This slow progress is particularly evident in Oklahoma, which has seen only 5% of the crop harvested compared to a much higher percentage last year. A surplus of rain in key states like Kansas and Oklahoma has hindered harvest efforts, and if this continues, it may affect grain quality and overall value.
On a more encouraging note, U.S. wheat export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year have reached their highest levels in 12 years. A significant portion of these sales is attributed to the hard red winter variety, indicating robust demand from foreign buyers.
Additionally, the health of the U.S. spring wheat crop is also showing signs of improvement, as ratings increased to 53%, promising further gains if favorable weather conditions persist.