The global dry bulk fleet is expected to see a significant decline, with a projected 22% reduction in younger tonnage by 2028. This forecast, presented by industry expert Kirkham at the 2025 Marine Money Week in New York, highlights a structural shift resulting from years of imbalance in newbuilding activity and an aging fleet that increasingly struggles to comply with modern efficiency and emissions standards. Kirkham emphasized the growing divide within the fleet, stating, “We’re seeing a clear bifurcation.” On one end, there’s a rising proportion of modern vessels that meet regulatory requirements, while on the other, a considerable segment of older ships remains that are slower, less efficient, and facing increasing penalties due to emissions regulations. He warned that this gap is expected to widen further over the next five years.
Moreover, the commercial advantages of younger vessels may be heightened by an impending wave of scrapping as regulatory pressures combine with commercial factors. Many older ships are nearing their third special survey, and with stricter environmental regulations and limited dry dock availability, shipowners are at a crossroads. They face the choice between costly upgrades or relegating older vessels to less profitable trades that may suffer from oversupply. As younger vessels are favored for long-term charters and environmentally conscious trading practices, Kirkham noted that this stratification is already influencing commercial dynamics.
Modern ships are attracting higher rates and interest from major commodity traders, while older tonnage is increasingly limited to shorter regional routes with potentially less stringent regulatory controls. Looking ahead, Kirkham suggested that evolving supply dynamics, driven by scrapping and regulatory changes, will play a crucial role in shaping market opportunities in the coming years. He concluded that as the industry transitions towards a more efficient fleet, stakeholders must adopt a data-driven approach to navigate this changing landscape effectively.