Black Sea corn prices are projected to stay low as the region anticipates a more favorable harvest, with production estimates considerably surpassing last year’s drought-impacted figures. Analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights highlight that Romania’s corn production for the marketing year 2025-26 is expected to be around 11.4 million metric tons, marking a substantial 76% increase from the 6.46 million metric tons harvested in 2024-25. Bulgaria is also expected to see an increase, projecting 3.3 million metric tons—more than double the 1.6 million metric tons produced previously.
Additionally, Ukraine’s production is estimated to rise to 31 million metric tons, up from 25 million metric tons. According to a representative from the Serbian Grain Association, “The planting for corn is completed, and the area is the same as in previous years.” This has led to expectations for higher yields and overall production than the previous year. The anticipated increase in supply has already begun to impact forward prices, with new crop Ukrainian corn offers coming in at $216 per metric ton FOB POC.
This figure represents a significant discount of $15 to $20 per metric ton compared to old crop prices, which were assessed at $236 per metric ton for loading between July 7 and 21 as of June 9. New crop corn is expected to be available in markets by early October. Traders expressed optimism regarding improved yields during the Balkans and Black Sea conference in Istanbul on June 2.
Offers from the Constanta-Varna-Burgas port complex for October-November loading stood at $215 per metric ton, with bids at $212. Consequently, buyers are shifting their focus to the upcoming harvest, causing the old crop market to pivot towards spot transactions instead of forward contracts. Despite these positive forecasts, some traders remain cautious, recalling last year’s unexpected heatwave that damaged crops.