According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia is predicted to maintain its status as the world’s leading wheat exporter through the current and following agricultural years. As reported by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA, Russia is expected to account for more than 20 percent of global wheat supplies. The FAO noted that global wheat exports are expected to decrease by about 8 percent, reaching a four-year low of 193.3 million tons during the 2024-2025 agricultural year.
A modest recovery is anticipated in the subsequent season, with exports rising by 3.8 percent to 200.6 million tons. FAO analysts expressed confidence that Russia will continue to lead the market, forecasting its wheat exports for the 2024-2025 agricultural year to reach 42.6 million tons, slightly above the previous three-year average of 42 million tons. In the following year, exports are expected to rise further to 46.5 million tons.
This will allow Russia to contribute approximately 22 percent and then 23 percent to global wheat markets, surpassing the average of 20.7 percent from the past three agricultural years. In contrast, the European Union, the second-largest wheat supplier, is projected to see its exports decline to 24 million tons this agricultural year, down from an average of 32.7 million tons in prior seasons. However, exports are expected to rebound to 30.7 million tons next year.
Canada, ranked third in wheat exports, is set to increase its exports by 19 percent compared to previous averages, reaching 26 million tons, before seeing a slight decrease to 25.5 million tons the following year.