China is poised to record significant purchases of rapeseed meal from India due to its recent implementation of a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian imports. According to senior industry officials, this shift will help China, the world’s leading consumer of rapeseed meal, replace Canadian supplies while simultaneously alleviating pressure on local rapeseed prices in India, where there are substantial stockpiles of this essential animal feed. B.V. Mehta, the executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, noted that Indian rapeseed meal is highly competitive compared to alternative sources, which has spurred an increase in shipments to China since March. Predictions indicate that India’s rapeseed meal exports to China could soar to a record 500,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, a dramatic rise from the 60,759 tons exported in the previous year.
In the early months of the current marketing year, India exported 113,836 tons of rapeseed meal to China, which put the tariff on Canadian imports starting March 20. In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of rapeseed meal from Canada, along with smaller amounts from other countries, but only 13,100 tons from India. Historically, India had difficulty exporting rapeseed meal to China due to higher prices. However, the current offer price from India stands at approximately $202 per ton on a free-on-board basis, significantly lower than the $300 price for EU supplies.
As China becomes a major buyer of Indian rapeseed meal, traditionally, South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam have dominated India’s exports. The growing demand from China is expected to enhance India’s rapeseed oil supplies, which is crucial since the country is the largest importer of vegetable oils and relies heavily on imports to meet its domestic needs.