At least two supertankers have made abrupt U-turns near the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. military actions against Iran. Ship tracking data indicates that over a week of escalated violence in the region is causing vessels to change their speeds, pause, or modify their routes. The U.S.’s recent backing of Israel’s strikes on Iran has heightened concerns that Iran may retaliate by blocking the strait, a crucial passage for approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply.
This uncertainty has led to forecasts predicting oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices reached new five-month highs recently, amid fluctuating trading as investors assess the potential impact on supply. Consequently, shipping rates for supertankers, which can transport up to 2 million barrels of oil, have sharply increased, more than doubling in a week to exceed $60,000 per day.
Notably, the supertanker Coswisdom Lake attempted to enter the strait on Sunday but later turned back south. On Monday, it resumed its journey toward Zirku port in the United Arab Emirates, while another supertanker, the South Loyalty, made a similar U-turn and opted to remain outside the strait. Changes in navigation strategies are apparent as well, with some tankers moving closer to Oman, while primarily Iranian-flagged vessels are staying in local waters.
The chemical tanker Kohzan Maru altered its course to stay in the Gulf of Oman, and other vessels like the Red Ruby and Marie C dropped anchor off Fujairah port, indicating a cautious approach. Shipowners are aiming to reduce the amount of time their vessels spend in the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing conflict, as several shipping firms emphasize minimizing Gulf navigation. In a related development, Iran’s parliament reportedly approved a measure to block the strait, although such a decision would still require validation from the Supreme National Security Council.
Despite previous threats, Iran has never actually enforced a closure of the strait.