The current macroeconomic environment is rife with uncertainties, primarily due to evolving trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecasts downward, projecting growth rates of 2.8% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, which represent declines of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively.
Notably, the growth outlook for North America has deteriorated as a result of rising U.S. import tariffs. Despite the less optimistic outlook, cargo volumes saw a robust increase of 5.1% year-over-year during the first four months of the year.
This growth can be partly attributed to the practice of front-loading cargo to the U.S. to circumvent impending higher tariffs. Interestingly, cargo volumes have surged even more significantly in four out of seven regions.
Looking ahead, BIMCO has adjusted its forecast for North American import cargo volume growth. It anticipates a weaker performance in the latter half of 2025 due to the previously mentioned front-loading phenomena, now predicting an average annual growth rate of just 1.6% for the period 2025-2026, making it the slowest among all regions.
Conversely, the growth forecast for volumes destined for Europe and the Mediterranean has been increased, with an impressive 7.3% growth reported in the first four months. Favorable economic indicators, such as lower inflation and unemployment, coupled with a stronger euro, support this improved outlook.
Overall, the container shipping sector is maneuvering through a complicated nexus of trade policies and changing economic circumstances, creating notable demand uncertainties. For example, a return to normal shipping routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal could potentially reduce ship demand by 10%.
BIMCO expects the supply/demand balance to weaken in the second half of 2025, prompting a decline in freight rates, with a similar trend projected for 2026.