Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote has set an ambitious goal for Africa to achieve self-sufficiency in fertiliser production within the next 40 months. This assertion comes alongside plans to expand his $2.5 billion fertiliser plant located near Lagos.
Currently, Africa imports over 6 million metric tons of fertiliser every year, which poses a significant challenge to local food production due to adverse growing conditions. Increasing domestic production of fertiliser would not only alleviate the dependency on imports but also lessen the financial burden associated with foreign exchange costs, a pressing issue for Nigeria amidst a struggling economy and a weakening local currency.
At the recent Afreximbank annual meeting in Abuja, Dangote proclaimed, “In the next 40 months, Africa will not import fertiliser from anywhere,” reflecting his aggressive vision for the industry. Dangote’s operation is already significant, as he manages Africa’s largest granulated urea complex, which has an annual capacity of 3 million tons, with 37% of that amount exported to the United States.
However, to realize his vision, he acknowledges that production must double, although he remains unconcerned about potential impacts from tariffs on imports. While analysts indicate a positive market outlook for fertiliser, they highlight challenges associated with scaling operations.
Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst, notes that expansions come with risks of cost overruns. Additionally, Mikolah Judson from Control Risk emphasizes the necessity for improved transport infrastructure and port capacity, as existing bottlenecks frequently hinder import and export projects in Nigeria.
Despite past delays in launching major projects, including Africa’s largest petroleum refinery, Dangote plans to list his fertiliser facility on the local stock exchange within the year, signalling confidence in his ambitious expansion plans.