The recent unrest in the Middle East has created uncertainty for grain farmers and traders in Brazil as they prepare for a significant corn harvest and the upcoming 2025/26 soybean crop. Frederico Humberg, the founder of grain trading company AgriBrasil, estimates that the tensions could lead to losses of around 5 billion reais (approximately $909.84 million) for Brazilian grain producers due to increased prices in essential agricultural inputs like urea.
This key nutrient for corn saw a price spike of $100 per metric ton, further complicating the market situation. To add to the challenges, exporters are facing a 20% rise in maritime freight costs, which translate to an additional $7 per metric ton on specific routes.
Brazil is on track to export 44 million tons of corn from its bountiful second crop this season. However, fierce competition from abundant supplies in the U.S., Argentina, and Ukraine poses a serious challenge for Brazilian growers.
Mauricio Buffon, a farmer in Tocantins state, expressed concern over market closures, particularly a significant loss of 4.5 million tons of sales to Iran. Currently, domestic buyers are primarily driving corn purchases.
Many farmers, including Buffon, are hesitant to order necessary crop nutrients required for their upcoming 2026 corn production due to inflated prices and market volatility. Additionally, Chinese buyers have also retracted from corn markets, exacerbating the situation.
Endrigo Dalcin, a farmer from Mato Grosso, highlighted the stagnation in input sales amid these tensions and noted that he has not yet purchased seeds or fertilizers. He lamented that while silos are full, farmers’ financial reserves are dwindling.
Marcos da Rosa, also from Mato Grosso, experienced delays from an input supplier for phosphate fertilizer and noted that the rising costs due to regional conflict have significantly affected his operations.