Fitch Ratings has updated its price assumptions for several metals and mining commodities, reflecting current market dynamics. The agency has raised its near-term price outlook for copper, zinc, gold, platinum, rhodium, and cobalt, while revising its 2025 assumptions downward for nickel and Chinese thermal coal due to anticipated declines in demand.
Additionally, all lithium price forecasts have been reduced due to an oversupply situation. Assumptions for iron ore, hard coking coal, aluminum, and Australian thermal coal remain unchanged.
The upward revision in 2025-2026 copper price assumptions is indicative of a tightly balanced global copper market. According to CRU, global refined copper demand is expected to rise by 3.6% in 2025 and approximately 3% in 2026, driven in large part by a 5.2% and 2.9% increase in China, which constitutes almost 60% of the global demand.
Nevertheless, copper supply may stagnate in 2025 as a result of operational suspensions and subsequent output cuts at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The increased expectations for zinc prices in 2026-2027 are attributed to higher demand from the defense sector and limited additional supply of both concentrate and refined metal.
However, this demand may weaken due to the ongoing trade conflict affecting other sectors. Fitch’s projections for gold prices in 2025-2026 are driven by rising geopolitical tensions that elevate its status as a safe haven asset.
Concerns surrounding a weakening US dollar have spurred significant investments into gold, pushing prices to record levels. In the jewelry sector, platinum’s price increase is linked to its rising demand as an alternative to gold.
Rhodium prices have also gone up due to sustained demand from the automotive industry in the US. Conversely, the assumption for the Chinese thermal coal benchmark has been lowered due to temporary market imbalances stemming from reduced demand and increased supply, which are expected to stabilize over the summer months.
The nickel price outlook has been adjusted downward, in part due to tariff implications affecting global economic growth, despite robust stainless steel demand. Lastly, lithium price assumptions have been cut significantly due to a burgeoning oversupply and decreasing demand from the electric vehicle market, influenced by tariffs and subsidy fluctuations in the US and Europe.
The cobalt price outlook has seen a slight increase due to an export ban extension from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which impacts a major portion of the global cobalt supply. Battery manufacturers are gradually transitioning towards cobalt-free alternatives, which offer improved performance at competitive pricing.