The shadow fleet, a term used for vessels operating outside legal frameworks, has significantly expanded amidst sanctions and increased scrutiny. As of early 2025, this clandestine market is estimated to include between 300 and 600 Russian tankers, a notable rise from fewer than 100 in early 2022.
Many of these ships are aging, often over 20 years old, and have evaded proper maintenance records through tactics like changing names and flags or using shell companies. The age of these tankers is a critical concern.
Typically, Russian vessels in the shadow fleet are over 20 years old, significantly exceeding the global average of 13 years for crude tankers. Some ships, like the Volgoneft tankers involved in the 2024 Kerch Strait spill, are from the late 1960s.
This aging fleet poses a higher risk to charterers, insurers, and financiers as they engage with these vessels. As global sanctions tighten, the risk of operating outside the norm also increases.
On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Treasury added 183 tankers to its sanctions, and subsequent packages from the EU and UK have only expanded the list, affecting approximately 270 distinct tankers by mid-May. This collective effort has stripped an estimated 25 million tons of cargo capacity from standard trade routes.
To navigate these challenges, vessels in the shadow fleet employ various evasion techniques. This includes manipulating Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to disguise ship type or transponder status, frequent flag and name changes, and complex ownership structures involving multiple front companies.
Furthermore, cargo concealment tactics complicate tracing the origins of shipments, making enforcement of sanctions even more difficult. As regulatory measures tighten, the operating environment for shadow fleet vessels diminishes.
For stakeholders involved in shipping, adapting to real-time sanctions data and leveraging behavioral analytics will be crucial to avoiding financial and legal repercussions. The need for transparency and integrity in vessel operations is more important than ever as the age of shadows fades.