Saturday

19-04-2025 Vol 19

Capesize Market Sentiment Shifts to Bearish in Dry Bulk Sector

The Capesize market began the week on a slow note due to the Hari Raya Puasa holiday observed in Singapore. However, trading gained traction as weekly activities resumed, particularly in the Pacific, where a midweek rebound occurred thanks to robust C5 activity. The three major miners successfully secured rates in the low $9, reflecting a tightening tonnage list and healthy cargo volumes.

An uptick in coal demand also contributed to rising timecharter earnings. Toward the end of the week, though, market activities decreased, influenced by holidays in Hong Kong and China, causing C5 rates to dip to $8.78. In the Atlantic region, the routes from South Brazil and West Africa to China maintained stability at the week’s outset.

However, by later in the week, rates for C3 and West Africa to China saw a decline despite stable tonnage and moderate cargo flows, with the C3 index finishing at $21.815. There was an increase in trans-Atlantic activity in the North Atlantic, but the influx of fresh cargoes was insufficient to absorb the available tonnage, resulting in a significant drop in the C8 index. Overall, sentiment turned bearish, reflected in the BCI 5TC, which fell to $18,404.

The Panamax sector faced uncertainty as the week progressed, influenced by concerns over a US tariff measure that stalled market momentum. The Atlantic experienced a positional divide, with the North Atlantic facing pressure due to a lack of demand. Rates were aligned closer to the mid $17,000s for specific voyages.

The South Atlantic, however, had a consistent flow of cargo from the Americas, though that too began to decline, causing a widening bid/offer spread as Charterers retreated. Asia saw steady declines, particularly in the north, while some support from coal demand and grain supply from South America provided limited buoyancy. Overall, the Ultramax/Supramax sector saw a rather lackluster week, particularly in the Atlantic, where activity remained cautious.

Despite some movements from the US Gulf, like a 61,000-dwt vessel fixed for a trip to Japan at $16,000, the South Atlantic displayed stronger activity with competitive rates. The Indian Ocean also showed minimal activity, with limited requirements leading to subdued market sentiment. In the Handysize segment, the overall market displayed minimal activity across both basins, reflecting a generally flat sentiment.

The Continent and Mediterranean regions remained quiet, and rates held steady. A notable transaction included a 35,000-dwt vessel fixed for NC South America at $7,250. Sentiment in the South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf remained unchanged, with grounding tonnage putting downward pressure on rates.

The Asian market mirrored this flat trend, although slight increases in tonnage were noted, with no significant changes in cargo volumes to drive rates higher.

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