The United States has historically been a leader in global grain exports, often referred to as the world’s breadbasket. While it continues to dominate corn exports, this position is increasingly under threat from rival suppliers such as Brazil, which has recently outpaced the U.S. in soybean exports.
The overall landscape of U.S. grain exports is shifting, with its former stronghold on corn, soybean, and wheat exports becoming weaker than ever. Over the last five years, the U.S. share of global corn exports has dropped to a record-low 31%.
Two decades ago, this figure was 61%, peaking at 80% in the late 1970s. The most significant decline occurred between the late 2000s and early 2010s, coinciding with the global financial crisis and a series of U.S. crop failures.
Brazil has dramatically increased its stake in corn exports, rising from a mere 5% twenty years ago to 22% today. Similarly, U.S. soybean exports have plummeted to an average of 27%, down from over 80% in the 1970s, with Brazil now dominating this market as well.
In wheat, the U.S. was once the top exporter but has since fallen to the fourth position. A historical moment came in January 1980 when then-President Jimmy Carter imposed a grain embargo against the Soviet Union, reflecting concerns about American farmers.
At that time, the U.S. controlled 44% of global wheat exports; today, that figure has dropped to just 11%. Production trends mirror export declines.
The U.S. currently produces 31% of the world’s corn, 28% of soybeans, and only 6% of wheat—significant reductions from previous decades. Countries like Russia and Brazil have considerably increased their agricultural output, reshaping the global grain market.
As the competitive landscape evolves, major suppliers could leverage the changing dynamics to their advantage, impacting U.S. agricultural relevance and profitability.