Agriculture plays a vital role in the U.S.-China relationship, particularly in the context of their ongoing trade tensions. Recently, China imposed additional tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods, marking a significant escalation in the trade war initiated during President Donald Trump’s administration. These tariffs follow earlier levies on agricultural products that threatened to decimate agricultural trade, which was worth around $21 billion. During the previous trade conflict, U.S. agricultural exports to China plummeted as Beijing retaliated with tariffs as high as 25% on key farm products, including soybeans and pork.
In response to this, China has diversified its agricultural imports, turning to countries like Brazil to mitigate risks associated with reliance on U.S. agriculture. This shift has allowed China to wield its purchasing power in the trade war while maintaining a focus on food security. Despite challenges, China remains the largest market for U.S. agricultural products. However, recent trends show a decline in imports, with Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods dropping 14% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Soybeans, which constitute the largest agricultural export to China, saw trade valued at $12.8 billion in 2024, but competition from Brazilian soybeans has seen the U.S. market share shrink significantly. Other agricultural sectors have also faced setbacks. Corn imports from the U.S. fell sharply as China approved Brazilian purchases, and the demand for U.S. meat and offal has diminished. Similarly, cotton exports to China decreased, and sorghum faced competition from other countries.
Finally, while wheat imports from the U.S. saw a temporary increase, overall demand from China remains uncertain due to adequate local supplies. Overall, agriculture remains a crucial yet contested element of the U.S.-China relationship.