Despite increased tariffs imposed on American goods, China is anticipated to import around 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the April to May period. Shipping data and relevant sources reveal that the majority of these cargoes were procured by Sinograin, China’s state stockpiler. Although Sinograin will likely incur higher duties, it may need to sell these beans at lower prices to compete with cheaper Brazilian soybeans. A trader based in Singapore noted that cancellations are unlikely, as purchases were made by a government entity.
However, they emphasized that selling U.S. soybeans while paying the tariff is not feasible, indicating that Sinograin will have to bear the cost of the duties. The escalating trade conflict between the United States and China poses a significant challenge to global agricultural trade. As the largest importer of soybeans, China relies heavily on U.S. exports. In 2024, the U.S. exported approximately $12.84 billion worth of soybeans to China, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This relationship has frayed, leading to China’s imposition of a 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports following similar tariffs introduced by the U.S. Currently, there are more than 30 cargoes, totaling roughly 2 million tons, expected to arrive soon, all subject to this tariff. Additionally, following a move by the U.S. to implement further duties, China has enacted a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods. According to recent data, 15 vessels carrying about 800,000 tons are expected to arrive after May 13 and will face a total of 44% in tariffs.
In light of this situation, with Brazil expected to maintain its status as the top supplier to China, the South American country could increasingly meet China’s soybean demands in the coming months.